Black Swan
Taleb's concept of rare, high-impact, retrospectively predictable events. Black swans: outliers with extreme consequences. Examples: 9/11, 2008 financial crisis, internet, COVID-19. Narrative fallacy: we create stories explaining them after. Ludic fallacy: assuming reality follows known distributions. Gray swans are somewhat predictable. Prepare for black swans through antifragility. Positive black swans (discoveries) versus negative (catastrophes). Epistemic humility about limits of prediction.
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